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Which Country Survived The Economic Recession Best?
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Australia :
Economic recession has hit countries of the entire world hard. It included even the most booming ones like India and China, where the estimated growth was not reached. In case of India, it happened to achieve lesser growth than the expected even though the economy did expand. So, a question remains which countries survived the economic recession best?
Answer – Australia
Servcorp carried out the survey. The countries that were worst hit were all the Western ones. The unemployment is growing high in the developed West, whereas it went up even in the Third World Arab countries, which are traditionally having a high unemployment. In the survey too, the list does not have any name in the top 10 except for Canada.
It seems having a not so open economy helps. The external diseases do not hit hard enough, but conversely when the world economy booms, the external growth does not come in fast too. Followed by Australia were China and India/Singapore. New Zealand stands at ninth stop. Many names are from the Eastern world. Clearly, this is the century where rise of the Asian countries phenomenon can be seen. In his book, ‘The Post – American World’, Fareed Zakaria talks in detail about the phenomenon which he calls ‘The Rise of The Rest’. It means the rise of other powers apart from America.
The 19th century belonged to the British, the 20th century belonged to the Americans, and it seems the 21st century belongs to Asians!
As for the major western powers, there were all booming when the world markets were booming. The effect of recession they felt was also high when the global recession took place.
It is not so easy to say whether an open economy helps or not. In most cases, an open economy only helps. If the whole world opted for open economies, well, the world would be much more free, peaceful and prosperous then. Countries indulging into free trade do not have any skirmishes or any problems with each other. That is the beauty of free trade.
A British politician, Richard Cobden once (1857) wrote:
Free Trade is God’s diplomacy and there is no other certain way of uniting people in the bonds of peace.
At this time of recession, Obama’s policies are turning out more protectionists. Pranab Mukherji, earlier Foreign Minister of India had also accused him for the same. This same mistake was done by the Western countries back in ‘70s and the outcome was nothing good. What different can we predict in case of America?
Coming to the survey, when people in Australia were asked which countries do they find surviving the recession best, Australia was the answer from their side as well!
Still, I do have a doubt. The survey was carried out by Servcorp. It seems an Australian based firm, and if you observe, the countries that you find there in the survey list are very close to the ones where the firm has its locations! http://www.servcorp.net/serviced-virtual-offices/locations.html
Now, that is quite fuzzy, but still I would rather rely this as Australian Dollar is hitting high from last eight months even in the times of recession.
The survey is here
The top countries best surviving the global recession:
1st - Australia
2nd - China
3rd - India and Singapore (equal)
5th - Hong Kong
6th - Canada
7th - Japan and Qatar (equal)
9th - New Zealand
10th - Malaysia, Sweden and Vietnam (equal)
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OneHumanityPlease,
I am not so expert in global commerce.
I have a piece of information ready which copied and paste to you:
February 16, 2009: 2009 Economic Depression looms large...
.
Japan, Australia’s largest trading/export customer, is plunging into a deep economic depression in 2009 based on Dec 08 Qtr annualised decline in GDP of - 12.7%. Australia, indeed the global economy especially China, will not be spared its economic & stock market impact.
.
Will Japan be alone in the 2009-10 economic depression club? No. Will Japan drag other economies down? Yes.
.
Latvia is the 1st Baltic State, and former Soviet Union country, to plunge into a economic depression in 2009 with Real GDP predicted to fall - 12% to - 15%. Don’t be surprised if Lithuania is next...if not 2009, then early 2010. Also, the global economic & financial crisis will trigger a major devaluation of all 3 Baltic States massively over-valued currencies...Latvian Lats, Lithuanian Litas & the Estonian Kroon...and to un-peg against the Euro. In fact, why not throw into the mix all Eastern European currencies?
.
Other former Soviet Union Eastern European countries, such as Ukraine, Poland & Hungary, will find it difficult to avoid the 2009 Depression Club.
.
Closer to home, Asian export-driven economies such as Singapore have already hit the GDP skids in March Qrt 1 2009. Excluding China & India, many will join the 2009 depression club-Iceland & Ireland.
.
March 5, 2009: US global insurance giant AIG’s collapse is directly related to its massive exposure to the derivatives market. US Gov’'t nationalism is on its way. But there’s a lot worse to come...and to negatively impact on global stock markets. See Dec 4, 2008: Ticking Time Bomb note above.
.
April 1, 2009: G20 Summit. World Leaders talkfest in London as global economic recession deepens for all economies, & global economic depression engulfs more countries...
.
Global economic stats for 4th Qtr 08 and so far for 09 are the worst since the Great Depression: not one country’s Real GDP is heading ”north”; all bar a few are in negative territory and worsening. China’s Real GDP is positive, but sharply heading south. Yet stock market pundits ignore the perils, naturally with OPM!...especially your Super Funds...
.
One final point: those economist’s & stock market players who think we’ve seen the worst I suggest you think again. My view: global economies, and therefore stock markets, are still a long way from the bottom primarily for reasons above. If I’m right, then you enter the stock market at your financial peril. See 2009 stock market indices forecasts.
.
April 5, 2009: GCC countries face economic recession in 2009...
...according to a National Bank of Kuwait report issued Saturday, April 4, 2009. GCC countries include Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, Oman & UAE. Massive fiscal stimulus packages funded by oil and gas surpluses are underway to limit the economic impact & fallout from the burst of the stock markets and property asset bubbes, plus the global recession, affecting the region. See October 30, 2008, prediction above.
.
2009 MENA economic recession...
2009 GCC economic recession will drag the MENA Region (Middle East & North Africa) into the same fate. Resource-scarce countries in relation to population such as Egypt, Morocco & Yemen will be hardest hit. 23% of MENA’s population of 300 million live below the poverty line...on less than US$2/day.
.
April 16, 2009: China’s economic growth turns sharply south...
Annualised Real GDP in March 09 Qtr was the lowest rate in a decade & likely to be +5% for 2009, well short of the Gov’t’s +8%. This will negatively impact global economic growth, especially countries like Australia, and prolong the global recession. My Oct 2008 prediction (above) appears overly optimistic.
.
May 15, 2009: 2009 GCC & MENA Stock Market Investment Strategies in a recession...
Beware of investing based on analysts’ reports on GCC/MENA stocks: many are flawed, lack critical & insightful analysis, and present overly-optimistic future results in recessionary times.
.
June 2, 2009: EU Baltic States 2009 economic depression...
All 3 Baltic States of Latvia, Estonia & Lithuania face a 2009 economic depression. See Feb 2009 prediction above. 1st Qtr annualised 2009 negative Real GDP reads like a horror novel: Latvia= -18%, Estonia = -15.6%, Lithuania = -13.6%! And that’s today’s historical figures. Long-in-coming currency de-pegging to the Euro and time for massive currency devaluations are fast approaching...although regretably far to late in implementation. And there’s more collateral damage across the sea...
.
Sweden’s currency and economy is in the firing line as a result of its past desire to plunge headlong into the Baltic States’ post-USSR economies and Sweden’s financial ’involvement’ with the 3 nations. The Krona is under attack...and well may it continue while the Baltic States fall into an economic abyss which I predicted in 2007 (but nobody there listened!).
.
June 3, 2009: Beware! Investment Strategist Jerome Nugent-Smith’s latest prediction...
global stock markets set to crash in 2nd half of 2009. The March-June 2009 stock market rally is unsustainable, as warned. See Above. The economic & financial health of global economies vary from very sick to dying a slow death, all completely ignored by stock markets but not by the Irish female spirit-the Banshee. My bet is that the 2009 stock market crash will be more severe than in 2008! (See 2008 Tables above as a guide. Also, forecasts of global indices). And its timing will come in disguise as a Banshee in the dead of night.
.
2009 & 2010: Winning Stock Market Investment Strategies in a global recession:
2009 & 2010 will see a global economic recession plus many countries in an economic depression. How do you make money out of stock markets? Jerome’s objective: to turn an investment of $200,000 into $3.2m within 2 years. See above. Call Jerome Nugent-Smith.
.
I am not so expert in global commerce.
I have a piece of information ready which copied and paste to you:
February 16, 2009: 2009 Economic Depression looms large...
.
Japan, Australia’s largest trading/export customer, is plunging into a deep economic depression in 2009 based on Dec 08 Qtr annualised decline in GDP of - 12.7%. Australia, indeed the global economy especially China, will not be spared its economic & stock market impact.
.
Will Japan be alone in the 2009-10 economic depression club? No. Will Japan drag other economies down? Yes.
.
Latvia is the 1st Baltic State, and former Soviet Union country, to plunge into a economic depression in 2009 with Real GDP predicted to fall - 12% to - 15%. Don’t be surprised if Lithuania is next...if not 2009, then early 2010. Also, the global economic & financial crisis will trigger a major devaluation of all 3 Baltic States massively over-valued currencies...Latvian Lats, Lithuanian Litas & the Estonian Kroon...and to un-peg against the Euro. In fact, why not throw into the mix all Eastern European currencies?
.
Other former Soviet Union Eastern European countries, such as Ukraine, Poland & Hungary, will find it difficult to avoid the 2009 Depression Club.
.
Closer to home, Asian export-driven economies such as Singapore have already hit the GDP skids in March Qrt 1 2009. Excluding China & India, many will join the 2009 depression club-Iceland & Ireland.
.
March 5, 2009: US global insurance giant AIG’s collapse is directly related to its massive exposure to the derivatives market. US Gov’'t nationalism is on its way. But there’s a lot worse to come...and to negatively impact on global stock markets. See Dec 4, 2008: Ticking Time Bomb note above.
.
April 1, 2009: G20 Summit. World Leaders talkfest in London as global economic recession deepens for all economies, & global economic depression engulfs more countries...
.
Global economic stats for 4th Qtr 08 and so far for 09 are the worst since the Great Depression: not one country’s Real GDP is heading ”north”; all bar a few are in negative territory and worsening. China’s Real GDP is positive, but sharply heading south. Yet stock market pundits ignore the perils, naturally with OPM!...especially your Super Funds...
.
One final point: those economist’s & stock market players who think we’ve seen the worst I suggest you think again. My view: global economies, and therefore stock markets, are still a long way from the bottom primarily for reasons above. If I’m right, then you enter the stock market at your financial peril. See 2009 stock market indices forecasts.
.
April 5, 2009: GCC countries face economic recession in 2009...
...according to a National Bank of Kuwait report issued Saturday, April 4, 2009. GCC countries include Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, Oman & UAE. Massive fiscal stimulus packages funded by oil and gas surpluses are underway to limit the economic impact & fallout from the burst of the stock markets and property asset bubbes, plus the global recession, affecting the region. See October 30, 2008, prediction above.
.
2009 MENA economic recession...
2009 GCC economic recession will drag the MENA Region (Middle East & North Africa) into the same fate. Resource-scarce countries in relation to population such as Egypt, Morocco & Yemen will be hardest hit. 23% of MENA’s population of 300 million live below the poverty line...on less than US$2/day.
.
April 16, 2009: China’s economic growth turns sharply south...
Annualised Real GDP in March 09 Qtr was the lowest rate in a decade & likely to be +5% for 2009, well short of the Gov’t’s +8%. This will negatively impact global economic growth, especially countries like Australia, and prolong the global recession. My Oct 2008 prediction (above) appears overly optimistic.
.
May 15, 2009: 2009 GCC & MENA Stock Market Investment Strategies in a recession...
Beware of investing based on analysts’ reports on GCC/MENA stocks: many are flawed, lack critical & insightful analysis, and present overly-optimistic future results in recessionary times.
.
June 2, 2009: EU Baltic States 2009 economic depression...
All 3 Baltic States of Latvia, Estonia & Lithuania face a 2009 economic depression. See Feb 2009 prediction above. 1st Qtr annualised 2009 negative Real GDP reads like a horror novel: Latvia= -18%, Estonia = -15.6%, Lithuania = -13.6%! And that’s today’s historical figures. Long-in-coming currency de-pegging to the Euro and time for massive currency devaluations are fast approaching...although regretably far to late in implementation. And there’s more collateral damage across the sea...
.
Sweden’s currency and economy is in the firing line as a result of its past desire to plunge headlong into the Baltic States’ post-USSR economies and Sweden’s financial ’involvement’ with the 3 nations. The Krona is under attack...and well may it continue while the Baltic States fall into an economic abyss which I predicted in 2007 (but nobody there listened!).
.
June 3, 2009: Beware! Investment Strategist Jerome Nugent-Smith’s latest prediction...
global stock markets set to crash in 2nd half of 2009. The March-June 2009 stock market rally is unsustainable, as warned. See Above. The economic & financial health of global economies vary from very sick to dying a slow death, all completely ignored by stock markets but not by the Irish female spirit-the Banshee. My bet is that the 2009 stock market crash will be more severe than in 2008! (See 2008 Tables above as a guide. Also, forecasts of global indices). And its timing will come in disguise as a Banshee in the dead of night.
.
2009 & 2010: Winning Stock Market Investment Strategies in a global recession:
2009 & 2010 will see a global economic recession plus many countries in an economic depression. How do you make money out of stock markets? Jerome’s objective: to turn an investment of $200,000 into $3.2m within 2 years. See above. Call Jerome Nugent-Smith.
.
(Global Perspectives)
Shafee,
Thanks for the stuff that you have pasted in. I can’t believe your words, ’I am not an expert’!! Anyways, that made for a good read. As for the case of Japan, that really astonishes me what made the people put Japan in this top 10 list? It should have been South Korea, as it did show a 0.1 % growth. Japan is clearly in recession mood, with some 9% dip, and last time it was 15%..
regarding Australia, it is perfect. Read this news item to confirm: http://english.aljazeera.net/business/2009/06/2009636355131285.html
Al - Jazeera gives some precise news.
Regarding India and China, I need not say anything. They only had ’lesser growth’, I wonder what their growth numbers would be once the world is out of recession. Export - oriented countries like South Korea and Singapore too did good this recession. Regarding India, I came across a piece of news from Iran’s Press TV website:
http://www.presstv.ir/detail.aspx?id=97105§ionid=3510213
Sorry for the links again!
Thanks for the comment.
Thanks for the stuff that you have pasted in. I can’t believe your words, ’I am not an expert’!! Anyways, that made for a good read. As for the case of Japan, that really astonishes me what made the people put Japan in this top 10 list? It should have been South Korea, as it did show a 0.1 % growth. Japan is clearly in recession mood, with some 9% dip, and last time it was 15%..
regarding Australia, it is perfect. Read this news item to confirm: http://english.aljazeera.net/business/2009/06/2009636355131285.html
Al - Jazeera gives some precise news.
Regarding India and China, I need not say anything. They only had ’lesser growth’, I wonder what their growth numbers would be once the world is out of recession. Export - oriented countries like South Korea and Singapore too did good this recession. Regarding India, I came across a piece of news from Iran’s Press TV website:
http://www.presstv.ir/detail.aspx?id=97105§ionid=3510213
Sorry for the links again!
Thanks for the comment.
(Global Perspectives)
While the numbers and analyses are interesting, isn’t it too early to make anything but an interim assessment?
Obviously, the most open, or interactive economies have been hurt worst, at least in the short term, but many of those economies are the best customers of some of the countries listed in the survey. How long does it take for the full effect of a recession in the western countries to affect the apparel suppliers of China, Malaysia, Indonesia, Korea, et al?
Many industrial sectors have their production booked a year or more in advance, which could simply mean that it takes longer for the ripple effect to reach the countries mentioned above.
I’d say that this survey is similar to interviewing a person who jumped off a 150-story building when he’s only fallen to the 80th floor... the pavement is still there waiting for him.
Obviously, the most open, or interactive economies have been hurt worst, at least in the short term, but many of those economies are the best customers of some of the countries listed in the survey. How long does it take for the full effect of a recession in the western countries to affect the apparel suppliers of China, Malaysia, Indonesia, Korea, et al?
Many industrial sectors have their production booked a year or more in advance, which could simply mean that it takes longer for the ripple effect to reach the countries mentioned above.
I’d say that this survey is similar to interviewing a person who jumped off a 150-story building when he’s only fallen to the 80th floor... the pavement is still there waiting for him.
(Global Perspectives)
As usual nothing is right- unless Michael analyzes it
here is another bull story
At this time of recession, Obama’s policies are turning out more protectionists. Pranab Mukherji, earlier Foreign Minister of India had also accused him for the same. This same mistake was done by the Western countries back in ‘70s and the outcome was nothing good. What different can we predict in case of America?
Coming to the survey, when people in Australia were asked which countries do they find surviving the recession best, Australia was the answer from their side as well!
Still, I do have a doubt. The survey was carried out by Servcorp. It seems an Australian based firm, and if you observe, the countries that you find there in the survey list are very close to the ones where the firm has its locations!
here is another bull story
At this time of recession, Obama’s policies are turning out more protectionists. Pranab Mukherji, earlier Foreign Minister of India had also accused him for the same. This same mistake was done by the Western countries back in ‘70s and the outcome was nothing good. What different can we predict in case of America?
Coming to the survey, when people in Australia were asked which countries do they find surviving the recession best, Australia was the answer from their side as well!
Still, I do have a doubt. The survey was carried out by Servcorp. It seems an Australian based firm, and if you observe, the countries that you find there in the survey list are very close to the ones where the firm has its locations!
(Global Perspectives)
Michael, your line is of utmost importance here that most industries have their production booked a year or more in advance. That is one reason why especially China and Mexico would get affected a little slowly, and their effect is only ’reduction in growth’ and not exactly a defined recession (2 or more quarters showing shrink in economy).
Japan is already hit!! 15% reduction in one quarter and I still don’t know what makes people to put Japan on this survey, other countries are fine.
As for your last line, I think somewhere it is an exaggeration as many countries will not go into recession but have a lower growth.
Anyways, thanks for your valuable comment and insight. Keep visiting.
Japan is already hit!! 15% reduction in one quarter and I still don’t know what makes people to put Japan on this survey, other countries are fine.
As for your last line, I think somewhere it is an exaggeration as many countries will not go into recession but have a lower growth.
Anyways, thanks for your valuable comment and insight. Keep visiting.
(Global Perspectives)
Most of the developing nations emerged favourites among international businessmen for their ability to withstand the recession. Out of 36 countries listed by Servcorp International, 21 countries are emerging market economies.... is there a lesson there ?
(Global Perspectives)
Shantanu, of course there is a lesson here!! The world is flat now.. The world has become a level playing field and you know who coined this term. Nandan Nilekani of Infosys, India! The latest bestseller books in the last 2 years like ’The World is Flat’ and ’The Post - American World’ (Fareed Zakaria) both discuss the same thing. Zakaria (originally an Indian by birth but now an American) coins this phenomenon as a term ’Rise of the Rest’. If you are interested in this subject, I suggest you not to miss these two books.
This flattening of the world is going to affect geopolitics as well. USA and the developed nations can’t anymore dictate terms in matters of world politics, China, India, Brazil and Russia will have higher weightage now. Furthermore, two strong nations can’t dare to have wars as both sides have started getting advanced military, just like India and China don’t want to go for a war now.
This flattening of the world is going to affect geopolitics as well. USA and the developed nations can’t anymore dictate terms in matters of world politics, China, India, Brazil and Russia will have higher weightage now. Furthermore, two strong nations can’t dare to have wars as both sides have started getting advanced military, just like India and China don’t want to go for a war now.
(Global Perspectives)
Recession can be one of those hazy definitions that rely on so many indicators which, in turn, vary from one defining agency to another. Whose definition is being abided by? There are many sources of diagnosis and prognosis: IMF, World Bank, WTO, ADB, EU, OECD, NBER, even G20, etc etc.
Granted that the more popular indicators used are those of the IMF, and the IMF defines global economic recession as having less than 3% growth vis-à-vis global GDP of the same period pre-recession, then India and China are only having an economic slowdown and not a recession. Probably the biggest thing that China had to alter during economic slowdown was letting go of its usual practice of buying US debt.
And then, of course, there are other indicators such as export/import trade, movements of speculative arena such as the stock market, employment rates, poverty threshold, minimum basic needs, quality of life, etc etc.
If the indicator of export trade is used, Canada is worse off than Brazil (these two countries rank one after the other on the IMF global GDP listing circa 2008, 10th and 11th largest economies, if I remember it right). Canada had been too dependent on its export trade with the US, while Brazil never was. And so when US importation slowed down, those dependent on it were more adversely affected.
Moreover, reversing the effects of recession can also have different qualifiers such as withstanding recession, absorbing the effects of recession, and repelling recession.
Granted that the more popular indicators used are those of the IMF, and the IMF defines global economic recession as having less than 3% growth vis-à-vis global GDP of the same period pre-recession, then India and China are only having an economic slowdown and not a recession. Probably the biggest thing that China had to alter during economic slowdown was letting go of its usual practice of buying US debt.
And then, of course, there are other indicators such as export/import trade, movements of speculative arena such as the stock market, employment rates, poverty threshold, minimum basic needs, quality of life, etc etc.
If the indicator of export trade is used, Canada is worse off than Brazil (these two countries rank one after the other on the IMF global GDP listing circa 2008, 10th and 11th largest economies, if I remember it right). Canada had been too dependent on its export trade with the US, while Brazil never was. And so when US importation slowed down, those dependent on it were more adversely affected.
Moreover, reversing the effects of recession can also have different qualifiers such as withstanding recession, absorbing the effects of recession, and repelling recession.
(Global Perspectives)
Grace, you are no less than an expert on this subject! I got to learn a lot from your comment. So, considering that recession has many different definitions by different agencies, we should prefer to call it ’slowdown’! Maybe, I sometimes think that if the media wouldn’t have created hype around things like recession and job loss, many people around the world would have had better states of mind. But, this was sooner or later going to attack.
(Global Perspectives)
”As for your last line, I think somewhere it is an exaggeration as many countries will not go into recession but have a lower growth.”
I didn’t necessarily mean that more countries would crash, just that the effects of the recession weren’t felt yet, and wouldn’t be for a while yet. That’s why I feel that this survey was premature.
A clearer picture of the overall effect around the world will probably emerge in 6 months or so.
I didn’t necessarily mean that more countries would crash, just that the effects of the recession weren’t felt yet, and wouldn’t be for a while yet. That’s why I feel that this survey was premature.
A clearer picture of the overall effect around the world will probably emerge in 6 months or so.
(Global Perspectives)
Michael, considering that industries have deals in an advance of more than a year, you are right that this survey is quite premature and better results would come after 6 months or so. It all started when oil prices went up around April - May 2008. But, still I think the results would not differ more from this one even after 6 months. Lesser damage, but damage for sure to this countries as well! Thanks for the comment. Keep visiting.
(Global Perspectives)
After researching this story on google we found it to be inaccurate and
misleading by someone trying to bring light to himself
It is biased and from a mind that sees the world the size of a pee
misleading by someone trying to bring light to himself
It is biased and from a mind that sees the world the size of a pee
(Global Perspectives)
The lesser heavy industry developed and the higher number of dole recipients already existing-the more invisibly a recent crisis of over-production to pass by.
(Local Perspectives)
)
Add your Comment
The thing is, I did not feel the effects of recession on a personal level... not sure if I should go out more often or what exactly, but I really didn’t feel it... explanation? maybe Jordan had a bad economy to start with that recession didn’t hit that hard!!! I dono... I’m just thinking out loud.
Now, choosing an open economy Vs. a not so open one, guess both ways have their pros and cons, and there is no absolutely correct answer to this (just like anything else in this world today :) )
The graph of Jordan’s economy is quite a plane one. When the world economy booms, there isn’t much boom there, whereas when it goes down, the effects aren’t felt at widespread level as well. In a way, that is good, but you won’t get to see innovation if this happens for a long time. You know, the best of the best innovations come out from companies at the times of recession! The 1991 - 1992 recession brought up IT, I hope this there’s something new, maybe ET! :=) As for the open economy, open economy is much better in my view. That brings in more prosperity, innovation and some telling live examples of that are the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) along with Mexico.
By the way, this map gives a better idea.
what u said was all correct, in my opinion, yet good planning is always needed if we wanted everyone to adopt an open economy policy, cz not all countries are able to afford the concept as it is, and adaptations need to be made for each country according to what they can or cannot do. for instance, if recession has hit Jordan the way it hit other -more developed- countries, that would have meant the end for Jordan...
but then again, economy is not really my field, so I wont make myself comfortable commenting on this :P